The 2026 Trofeo Alfredo Binda will be decided by who can handle the final ascent of Orino with enough left to cover the 10.5 kilometers into Cittiglio. The race runs 152.7 kilometers from Luino on the eastern shore of Lake Maggiore through five finishing circuits, each featuring a categorized climb, and the positioning into that last rise typically determines whether the winner comes from a late attack or a reduced sprint.
The circuit pattern alternates between the steeper Casale climb on odd laps and the longer Orino ascent on even laps, a rhythm that prevents any single effort from becoming decisive too early but accumulates fatigue across the field. Twenty-four teams start on Sunday, and the provisional startlist includes Cat Ferguson, Noemi Rüegg, and Monica Trinca Colonel among the key names expected to feature when the race splits in the final hour.
The route leaves Luino after a 3.8-kilometer neutral rollout and hits the first categorized climb at kilometer 25.3, early enough to establish pace but not to thin the group significantly. The real selection comes in the final two laps, when teams with multiple cards can force the issue on Casale and then cover moves on the last Orino ascent. That final climb averages 3.9 percent over 3.9 kilometers, steep enough to hurt but not so severe that it guarantees a solo winner, and the descent and flat run-in to Cittiglio leave room for small groups to reorganize or for a strong finisher to close a gap.
If the pace stays controlled through the first three circuits, expect a tactical race where positioning into the final Orino matters more than raw climbing power. If an early move goes on Casale during lap three, the chase will have to commit on the fourth-lap Orino or risk losing contact before the finale. The alternating climb pattern rewards riders who can read when to follow and when to save effort, and the winner will likely come from the group that crests Orino together with 10 kilometers remaining.
Watch the final Orino ascent closely. The race will either fracture there or arrive in Cittiglio with a select group still intact, and in either case, the winner will be someone who timed their effort to that last climb rather than burning matches earlier in the circuits.