Il Lombardia 2026 favorites, route, and how the race could be won
Tadej Pogacar has won five consecutive editions. No rider has ever won six of the same Monument. The 120th Il Lombardia runs from Bergamo to Como on October 10, and the question is simple: who, if anyone, can beat him on the climbs of Lombardy?
Tadej Pogacar has turned Il Lombardia into a personal exhibition since 2021. Five consecutive victories, equaling Fausto Coppi's all-time record of five wins. A sixth would give him sole ownership of the record and extend a streak unprecedented in Monument cycling.
The route from Bergamo to Como covers 252 km and features the classic sequence of Lombardy climbs: the Madonna del Ghisallo early in the race, the Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia in the decisive final section. The Civiglio (4.2 km at 10% average with sections exceeding 14%) has been the most common launchpad for winning attacks in recent years, while the San Fermo offers a final chance to gain or lose seconds before the descent into Como.
Pogacar's dominance has been so complete that the race narrative has shifted from who will win to whether anyone can stay close. Remco Evenepoel, who won the 2022 Vuelta a Espana and the 2024 Liege-Bastogne-Liege, represents the strongest challenge from a pure GC rival. Juan Ayuso, Pogacar's UAE Team Emirates teammate, could play a tactical role. Tom Pidcock, with his descending ability and punchy climbing, fits the Lombardia profile.
The late-season timing matters. Riders arriving from the Vuelta a Espana carry fitness but also fatigue. Those who skipped the Spanish Grand Tour may be fresher but less race-sharp. The October weather over the lakes can shift from warm autumn sun to cold rain, changing the dynamic on the technical descents.
For the 120th edition of the Race of the Falling Leaves, the fundamental question remains: can the closing Monument produce a surprise, or will Pogacar extend his reign into territory no cyclist has reached before?